Florida Wonk Blog

Your Daily Antidote To The Right Wing Fringe

Florida Wonk Electoral Map: Obama Wins Ohio; Gets to 270

Each week and when necessary , I will be releasing my electoral map update. These projections are based on the Real Clear Politics Average, which aggregates all of the major polls in each state.  The President had a great week this week. He has made some serious gains in Ohio. So much so that the majority of polls in Ohio give the President at minimum, at 4 point lead. Some have the President leading the swing state by 8 or 9 points. If you have been following my analysis of the race thus far on my facebook and twitter, you’ll know that I had hypothesized that Governor Romney needed to sweep Florida, Ohio, and Virginia to the Presidency. I stand by that statement.

Going into the 1st debate this week, Romney is running out of time and out of newscycles. He has to have a strong performance on October 3rd to stay alive. Or this map could get even bluer and Romney chances could get even dimmer than they already are. Romney still has a chance to win this race but given that Ohio is off the board, Romney is going to have to make up ground in a blue state and flip it. One such state where that could happen is Colorado and maybe, New Hampshire.  For the sake of argument let’s examine that scenario.

Lets say, Romney manages to win back New Hampshire and squeeze out victories in Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. And later in the evening is  successful in taking Colorado as well.  This is what the map would like:

It would come down to the Silver State- Nevada. Winner take all. An interesting scenario to say the least. Now, to be fair to Obama. If he we wins our state of Florida and manages to keep this lead in Ohio, this election will be over. Mitt Romney cannot win the Presidency without Florida at this stage in the game.

Here are the latest RCP averages in swing states from RealClearPolitics: All of my projections are based on the data from here.


#HypocrisyAlert: Allen West brings up Murphy’s Teenage Mistake; Refuses To Address Torture Conviction


Back in May, Allen West held a town hall at the Mae Volen Seniors Center in Boca Raton. One of the attendee asked him to explain his Article 15 conviction for torturing an innocent Iraqi Policeman. Allen West’s response that got full applause from the room of Tea Party activists.

“And if you guys wanna go back and talk about what happened 9 years ago for me, lets talk about the President doing blow”


New Allen West Ad is Brutal But Also Effective

UPDATE: (2:19 PM)  Allen West’s Campaign is up with a new website questioning whether Patrick Murphy is qualified for office: Visit it HERE

Say what you want about Congressman Allen West. He’s an extremist (which he is), he’s crazy (which he is), he’s aloof (which he is), but this new ad that his campaign put out today will prove to be a devastating blow to the Patrick Murphy campaign. Why didn’t the Murphy campaign get in front of this issue?  For a campaign with a candidate with very low name ID, no legislative experience, and weak ground game taking the high road on attacking Allen West is probably not the best strategy. Murphy’s campaign has been one step behind the entire campaign and this ad just said that to 200,000 registered voters in Florida CD 18.

Dems need to fight back against these aggressors and blowhards. Not take the high road.  Full disclosure: For those of you who don’t know me or couldn’t tell,  I am a registered Democrat. But, I’m one who wont sit idly by as radical blowhards like Allen West control the national conversation and prevent progress on some of our nations most pressing issues.

There’s a great scene in the movie Ides of March that’s very fitting to this situation and to the greater problem the Democratic Party has.

“You’re right, this is exactly what the Republicans do, and it’s about time we learned from them. They’re meaner, tougher and more disciplined than we are. I’ve been in this business for twenty five years and I’ve seen way too many Democrats bite the dust because they wouldn’t get down in the mud with the fucking elephants.”

Your ship is taking on water Patrick. Don’t let it sink.




Charlie Crist = Florida’s Mitt Romney… Just Without the Hundreds of Millions of Dollars


Two years ago this month, I wrote an Op-Ed for the Palm Beach Post criticizing many high profile Palm Beach County Democrats for abandoning Congressman Kendrick Meek’s Senate Campaign in favor of newly reincarnated  “Independent” Charlie Crist.  Some local politicians even went as far as to endorse Congressman Meek at a public event only to reverse said endorsement and jump ship to support the Governor.

For some elected Democrats, the decision to endorse Crist in the 2010 Senate race was a legitimate one- that he was the only candidate who could win, that he was the moderate, that we had to do anything to stop Marco Rubio.  But unfortunately, the majority of the electeds made this decision based on politics, personal ambition and polling data. In other words, rather than supporting the policies and principles that make us Democrats, these folks put personal ambition and politics ahead of progress. As we know, Charlie went on to lose by 20 points while Congressman Meek finished third and is now out of politics after Senate Republicans blocked his confirmation as US Representative to the UN General Assembly in 2011.

Rewind to the 2008 Presidential Campaign. Majority of Floridians will remember “the Obama Hug” that got Charlie in trouble with the right wing factions within the RPOF. But they won’t remember that it was Charlie who took to CNN to say that Governor Sarah Palin was more qualified to be President than Barack Obama. It was Charlie who took to Fox News Sunday to say that we should repeal the Affordable Care Act or “Obama Care.” It was Charlie Crist who took to MSNBCs “Morning Joe” to ponder whether Barack Obama actually wanted to lose the Iraq War. And my personal favorite, it was Charlie Crist who took to CNN to argue that President Obama was heading for a Jimmy Carter style loss in 2012 because he didn’t deliver on the change he promised.

Fast forward to 2012. Here we are in the middle of a Presidential election cycle- one where Charlie Crist’s name does not appear anywhere on the ballot. Meanwhile, he’s everywhere. He shows up at the Democratic National Convention to give what was an awkward speech that left the majority of the Florida Delegation sitting on their hands. Less than a week after President Obama visited our area, Crist showed up at Scott Van Duzer’s Big Apple Pizza shop in Fort Pierce with a huge grin and what could only be  described as a borderline creepy  comment ready  in the back of his mind- “You Know What I’m Here For.” Charlie wasn’t interested in hearing about Scott’s business, his family, or his struggles or even his input on how we can fix whats broken.  He was there for one reason, and one reason only. He wanted the same bear hug photo that the President took with Mr. Van Duzer not because he cares, but because maybe, just maybe, it would get him some coverage in the next news cycle. My idea for the headline: Look at me, Look at me, I’m pretty too!

Charlie Crist is a self proclaimed “pro life, pro gun, anti-tax Regan Conservative and Jeb Bush Republican.” At the DNC, Crist said that he didn’t leave the GOP, that the GOP left him. The last time I checked Governor, the GOP is as strong a pro life, pro gun, anti-tax party as ever before and they are now run by people that describe themselves just like you did- Reagan Conservatives.  Governor Crist, you are Florida’s Mitt Romney, willing to say anything or do anything to get elected- just without the hundreds of millions of dollars Romney made by laying off Middle Class workers and shipping their jobs overseas.

Governor Crist you are the epitome of an empty suit and a perfect example of the type of politician this country needs to avoid if we are ever going to get our state and country back on the right track. You have no central ideological core and your movements, statements, and policy positions are driven solely by your personal ambition for power and celebrity not service and certainly not for needs of Floridians.

Simply put Charlie, your 2014 gubernatorial run would be a trojan horse not just for Democrats but for our entire state. If the Florida Democratic Party sells their soul to you, it will undoubtedly and gradually eat away at their brand. It would bring the FDP down to the RPOF level by allowing empty suit politicians whose only solid plan is to continue to get elected and reelected.

Florida has serious long term structural and institutional problems that require leadership and serious people to fix them. We have one of the most extreme legislatures and the worst Governor in the county and sending a career empty suit that has no loyalty nor a consistent record of progressive reform, would be a victory for Tallahassee insiders and special interests and once again the people of Florida would get saddled with the loss.

Do us a favor Charlie. Stay away and let someone else fix the mess that you left behind.



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Coming soon.